Grey routes and inflated traffic get plenty of alarming headlines, and much of the evidence behind them comes from firms that sell firewalls. That does not make the problem imaginary. It does mean a sender should know which numbers can bear weight. This report grades the evidence for Kenya and Africa, then lists what to ask your provider.
Key findings
Two different problems
A grey route carries a business message in a way that avoids the operator’s proper charge. Araxxe ties this to termination rates and SIM farms: the wider the price gap, the stronger the incentive. Artificially inflated traffic is something else. Bots trigger fake messages, often one-time passwords, so someone can collect a share of the fees. There is no consistent industry definition of it, one reason estimates differ so widely. The first hurts operators and can harm your delivery. The second lands on the bill of whoever pays for the messages. See the OTP economy for why login flows are targeted.
How strong is each number?
Our own grading of what each source shows.
Kenya and Africa: what is known
The Kenya figure comes from Araxxe’s observatory, which it says monitors 345 operators in over 130 countries. Its 24% is a peak, published without a base or a quarter, by a firm in this market. It suggests bypass has happened in Kenya at a meaningful level. It does not tell you today’s rate.
The firmest African facts are commercial. Zamani in Niger, with over 3 million customers, chose a Hayo firewall in February 2026, and Tigo Tanzania chose Globe Teleservices in 2024. Those deals show operators spend money on the issue, but say nothing of its size. A sponsored article claims Africa has the highest concentration of risk, and offers no data. We give that claim no weight. On consumer scams, a different subject, see SMS fraud in Kenya.
Check your own numbers
Your OTP logs are better evidence than any of the above. A large gap between codes sent and codes verified can signal inflated traffic, but it can also mean delivery trouble or users who gave up, so treat it as a prompt to investigate. The inputs below are examples.
OTP gap calculator
Example inputs, not benchmarks. The baseline is your normal rate from a quiet period.
Questions for your provider
Good answers should be specific. These also matter for accountability around personal data, as our Kenyan privacy report explains.
Six questions to ask
Tick each one your provider answers clearly in writing.
Methodology
We read vendor, trade and sponsored sources and graded each by what it discloses. Grades are our judgement. We found no independent Africa-wide measurement for 2026, and the 0 in our findings means only that our search found none. The 5% to 40% AIT range appears in a sponsored article by Monty Mobile and names no study. Enea and Mobilesquared figures are for 2023, reported by TechCentral, with a range of 19.8 to 35.7 billion messages. The calculator is illustrative and cannot prove fraud.
FAQs
What is a grey route in SMS?
A path that delivers a business message while avoiding the destination operator’s proper charging, often to profit from differences in termination rates.
What is artificially inflated traffic?
Fake message traffic, often bots requesting one-time passwords, created so that someone can take a share of the fees. The sender pays for messages no real user wanted.
How big is SMS bypass in Kenya?
Nobody independent has published a current figure that we could find. Vendor Araxxe reports a peak of 24%, with no base or quarter given.
Sources
- Araxxe, A2P SMS bypass observatory: Kenya (vendor), 8 Jan 2026
- TechCentral, growing fraud could kill SMS, 14 Feb 2024
- Developing Telecoms, Tigo Tanzania firewall, 20 Feb 2024
- TechAfrica News, Zamani selects Hayo, 3 Feb 2026
- Inside Telecom, the silent tax on every OTP (sponsored), 5 May 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is a grey route in SMS?
A path that delivers a business message while avoiding the destination operator's proper charging, often to profit from differences in termination rates.
What is artificially inflated traffic?
Fake message traffic, often bots requesting one-time passwords, created so that someone can take a share of the fees. The sender pays for messages no real user wanted.
How big is SMS bypass in Kenya?
Nobody independent has published a current figure that we could find. Vendor Araxxe reports a peak of 24%, with no base or quarter given.